I am not going to get into any comprehensive analysis of the Harvard IOP and MTV/CBS surveys, but there are a few themes that I want to cover. For more analysis check out Future Majority.

Facebook and MySpace

Once again Facebook is the social network of choice for college students, while MySpace is more popular among non-college students. Facebook beats MySpace when it comes to political use, with 23% of respondents using the site politically to MySpace’s 11%.

Facebook increased in popularity and political use from 2006. I think this is likely a result of the changes Facebook made: opening the site to anyone, and opening the Facebook platform to third-party developers. These applications have increased the opportunities for Facebook users to engage politically. In the last week MySpace opened up its developer platform, so applications will be on the way and could increase the level of political use.

Campaign Volunteering

56% of 18-24 year olds stated that they would volunteer for the campaign they supported if they were provided the opportunity (12% Very, 44% Somewhat).

What is interesting is the difference between the Democratic candidates and John McCain. There is a 10% difference between Clinton/Obama and McCain. This indicates that young people voting Democrat are more willing to volunteer on a campaign than young people voting Republican.

Youth are Issue-Oriented and Want Issues Addressed

In the wake of the disastrous ABC/National Enquirer debate, youth are hungry for the discussion of the actual issues that “professional” journalists are not giving them.

• 65% say there is too much focus on race and gender.
• 65% say too little time is spent on jobs and opportunities for young workers.
• 47% say too little time is spent on global warming.
• 65% say too little time is spent on reducing oil and gas use.
• 59% say too little time is spent on education.
• 57% say too little time is spent on increased college costs and student loans/financial aid.
• The top issues are the economy (33%), Iraq (25%), education (9%), health care (9%), terrorism (8%), and the environment (7%).

In other words, if young people were asking the questions we would probably have a substantial debate.

Democrats More Concerned About Youth

Young people believe that the Democratic candidates are more concerned about the problems facing them than John McCain.

Young Voters Are More Convinced of Their Influence

67% of respondents felt that their generation would have as much or more influence than other generations this election, up from 53% last June.

Nader Pulls More Young People From McCain than Dems

Between Obama and McCain, there is no difference between the margin with Nader in the race, Obama winning by 21% in both situations.

Between Clinton and McCain, Clinton improves from 5% to 7% over McCain with Nader in the race.

Are there any interesting themes that you noticed in these surveys? Leave a comment.

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In 2006 Paul Graham published an e-book entitled The Power of the Marginal. While originally intended for the tech community and entrepreneurs, the general point is applicable to almost every field, including politics. Graham suggests that his message in one sentence is “just try hacking something together.” In other words, be innovative and try new things. There are many disadvantages to approaching projects as an insider: “the selection of the wrong kind of people, the excessive scope, the inability to take risks, the need to seem serious, the weight of expectations, the power of vested interests, the undiscerning audience, and perhaps most dangerous, the tendency of such work to become a duty rather than a pleasure.”

One of the strengths of the Young Democrats of America is that it is a chapter-based organization, with local chapters spread throughout the country. Chapters should be coming up with new ideas, new applications for tools, new methods, etc. In essence, be willing to take the risk of trying out a new idea, even though it may fail. Graham argues that the ability “to take risks is hugely valuable.” Every successful innovation has been a risk. Clay Shirky’s Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing Without Organizations dedicates an entire chapter to the power of failure. According to Shirky “failure is free, high-quality research, offering direct evidence of what works and what doesn’t.” If local chapters are innovating, acting on ideas, and sharing their successes and failures with other chapters and YDA, the organization benefits greatly. That is the advantage of being a local chapter: you have the power to try new things.

Don’t get stuck in the belief that you have to do things the way they have always been done or be afraid to try something because it has never been done before. Think about ideas that come from other areas and see if you can find a way to apply them to your goals. Read books that change the way you approach problems, books like Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing Without Organizations, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything, etc. Read blogs and articles from other disciplines, from psychology to marketing and anything in between. The most important thing is to not hide your failures, but to share them. The more we know about was hasn’t worked, the better we are able to come up with ideas that might work.

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Read the Full Report

A major, multi-mode survey of America’s young people recently conducted by
Democracy Corps shows young people profoundly alienated from the Republican Party and
poised to deliver a significant majority to the Democratic nominee for President in 2008.

The political stakes with this generation could not be higher. In 2008, young people
(ages 18-31) will number 50 million, bigger than the baby boom generation. By 2015 they will likely comprise one-third of the U.S. electorate. While participation among young people still lags well behind other generations, turnout increased two election cycles in a row and, in 2004, jumped nine points (to 49 percent). In 2004, younger voters were the only generational cohort outside of the World War II generation to support John Kerry (56 percent). In 2006, younger voters supported Democrats by a 60 – 38 percent margin, the highest of any generation.

The looming disaster Republicans face among younger voters represents a setback that could haunt them for many generations to come. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead Rudy Giuliani—the most acceptable of the Republican offerings among youth—by significant margins, assembling a diverse coalition of support and leading the vote among independents. Exploring attitudes toward the parties themselves, young voters’ reaction to fundamental issues and their perceptions of the GOP suggest a fundamental alienation from the Republican Party, a crisis that will not leave with the Bush administration.

Young people react with hostility to the Republicans on almost every measure and
Republicans and younger voters disagree on almost every major issue of the day. The range of he issue disagreements range from the most prominent issues of the day (Iraq, immigration) to burning social issues (gay marriage, abortion) to fundamental ideological disagreements over the size and scope of government. This leaves both potential Democratic nominees with substantial leads over Rudy Giuliani, but importantly, both Democrats still have room to grow their support among younger voters. The current problems with the Republican brand are not fully reflected in young people’s preferences in for President.

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