CurrentTV has some great coverage on the Millennial generation, the youth vote and civic realignments.

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Earlier today I wrote two posts about vote pledges: Vote Pledges and Why They Work on Future Majority and Vote Pledges are Valuable, Even in Heavily Democratic Areas on the Young Democrats of America Blog.

From Vote Pledges and Why They Work:

The concepts of peer-to-peer and vote pledges were developed after extensive research on marketing behavior and social psychology. Social psychologist Dr. Robert Cialdini from Arizona State University explains the power of commitment and consistency in Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion:

Once we have made a choice or taken a stand, we will encounter personal and interpersonal pressures to behave consistently with that commitment.

The process of a young person signing a pledge to vote for a Democrat in November is a commitment to take that action, and they will be much more likely to actually do so in order to be consistent: “Once a stand is taken, there is a natural tendency to behave in ways that are stubbornly consistent with the stand.”

From Vote Pledges are Valuable, Even in Heavily Democratic Areas:

We have often talked about the research showing that a young voter who votes for the Democratic Party in three consecutive elections will likely identify themself as a Democrat for the rest of their life. We have also talked about how the Millennial Generation is more mobile than any other. Just because a young person is living in a highly Democratic area now, there is a good chance they will eventually live in places that aren’t.

The environment for collecting vote pledges and peer influence is much better in highly Democratic areas, so young people are more likely to been involved in social networks where being a Democrat is looked upon highly. By starting them on the path of becoming a life-long Democrat in areas where the peer reinforcement is supportive of the Democratic Party, the chances of success are very good. If and when they move to another location where the culture is not as supportive, the Democratic Party will already be a part of their identity.

Please go check out the posts in their entireties and leave comments with your thoughts. Also, don’t forget to sign the vote pledge at yda.org/votepledge and to encourage your friends to do the same.

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Live from Nashville, we are rolling out the online voter pledge for YDA. Go to yda.org/4 and sign the pledge now.

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I know what you are thinking. What is Kevin doing talking about another online service when we are just starting to figure out what the hell a Twitter is? I feel your pain. Actually, I don’t because I love this stuff, but I do understand your pain.

Well, for those of you that are adventurous, Friendfeed is a social network aggregator that takes your contributions from a whole litany of social networking sites and puts them in one place for discussion.

Friendfeed has recently created a rooms feature that allows you to have a topic-specific room for discussion and sharing, so I have started a Youth Vote room.  So if you have a Friendfeed account or are interested in creating one check it out. My account is here if you want to see it or add me.

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The CIRCLE report released today shows 46,000 young voters taking part in yesterday’s West Virginia Democratic Primary.

“Young Americans have been turning out to vote at remarkable rates in these primaries. This
reflects their deep concern about the critical issues at stake and the impact of this election on
our country’s future,” said CIRCLE Director, Peter Levine. “Since 2000, young people have
been volunteering at high rates and are becoming more interested in news and public affairs.
Now they are ready to consider voting as a way of addressing major problems. The Millennials
are beginning to make their distinctive and lasting mark on American politics.”

West Virginia young voters (18-29) voted for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama 56% to 38%, making WV one of the few states that Sen. Clinton has won this demographic.

CIRCLE re-emphasizes the upward trend of youth participation:

The increase in youth turnout observed in most primaries so far continues a trend observed in
other elections since 2000. In the 2006 congressional elections, the voter turnout rate among
18-to 29-year-olds increased by three percentage points compared to the previous
congressional election of 2002. And in the 2004 presidential election, the national youth voter
turnout rate rose 9 percentage points compared to 2000, reaching 49 percent. In 2004,
under-30-year-olds were registered to vote at the highest rate in 30 years.

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Kevin Bondelli’s Youth Vote Podcast Episode #1

Click the link above for the mp3. The sound quality isn’t quite as good as I would like, but I recorded it using the built-in microphone on the laptop and open-source mixing software.

Topics include the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Indiana voter ID law, Twitter, and the GOP Generational Time Bomb.

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Michael Connery’s Youth to Power received an excellent review on Alternet today, yet a few members of the community have lashed out against the Millennial generation in their comments. Here are some examples of the comments:

Absolutely. The problem with the “youth vote” and upper crust “progressives” in general is that they have a very short attention span. They are also less likely to vote come November.

Stop the a–kissing and remind people that as Americans they have an obligation to vote. Young, old and in between. I’m tired of the demographics and stats that create status and and self importance. There is no reward for voting but there’s pay back when you don’t. The example is now in the White House. The early primaries this election were proof that it’s about numbers. Get out and vote or the media will elect our president. Let them find real jobs. Thanks, ANNA

Most American youth can’t point out Korea on a globe, so their credibility is lacking. They spent too much time trying to act like the retarded gansta rappers they’ve been brainwashed to think are great.

Tired of being stereotyped as frivolous? Having a short attention span? Saying one thing, then doing another-or worse-nothing at all? Well, then, you’ve got a dandy chance to put all those preconceived notions to rest this November by FOLLOWING THROUGH on your promise to vote for a better future. The rethugs won’t be expectiog it. Remember 2004? There were great expectations of massive youth support for John Kerry, but it never materalized. No wonder your elders don’t expect much from you this time. Show them how wrong they are, and you’ll possibly save our nation from another bushie dark age.

Luckily Michael and some others have been countering the anti-youth offensive:

arclight7…I’ve got news for you… most Americans can’t point out Korea on a globe! Don’t blame the young people! It wasn’t the youth that put this criminal in the White House! It wasn’t the youth that got us into this god-forsaken war! It isn’t the education policies of the young that fails to teach them geography anymore! How narrow-minded and myopic your view of the youth in this country and their right to have a role in the politics of this country! Remember, it’s them who will be making policy that will effect you when you’re old and sitting in a nursing home. Better treat them better.

Even though there is no draft to motivate young people, they are energetically employing the most powerful antiwar/social-change weapon of all: the ballot box. For that reason, Barack Obama should become our next president. If not this year, he absolutely will win the White House in 2012. As for me, an old fart (72) with grandkids, I couldn’t be happier.

The Democratic Party should be “big” enough for everybody, shouldn’t it? Why can’t candidates appeal to all voters, regardless of age, race, religion (or lack thereof), sex? For those of you discounting the youth vote, aren’t they the future of this country? Don’t they have a bigger stake in who our leaders are and the policies that will be enacted? Talk about short-sighted! Perhaps it’s true what they say about Boomers… it’s always “ME! ME! ME!” Get over yourselves and encourage younger people to be involved and get active! How the hell does that hurt you? Perhaps you’re afraid of some new ideas, new perspectives? I listened to the Obama’s being interviewed on MSNBC and Michelle Obama said that the younger voters are very important in this campaign. And she’s right. I’m glad someone is reaching out to young people to let them know it’s their country, too! They’ve been ignored for too long already.

18 – 29 year olds were the only age demographic to vote in favor of John Kerry in 2004. Every other age group voted in favor of Bush. Youth turnout was up by 4.3 million votes in 2004. Turnout jumped to it’s highest level in over a decade. Young people did their part, they just didn’t get any help from the Boomers or Xers.

Yep. I’m 28. Voted for Kerry AND Gore. Where was everyone else?

Today’s young voters are one of the most progressive voting blocks in the country according to research by CIRCLE and PEW. They are also the biggest generation in American and voting increasingly Democratic – making them the greatest hope for a long-term progressive majority in the 21st Century.

The sad thing is that even though Alternet has had great coverage of the youth movement, there are still some readers that when faced with great news about the potential for the Democratic party in 2008 and the decades to come, get defensive and attack the generation that can lead to this realignment. The largest generation in the history of the United States is heavily identifying as Democrats and yet instead of welcoming such a development they mock and demean it. While those that commented negatively on the Alternet article are a tiny part of the community, it shows that even on friendly territory there are those that express anti-youth sentiments.

These people blame young voters for not saving them from their own generation, and that is disturbing. As Michael pointed out, 18-29 year olds were the only demographic to vote for John Kerry in 2004. The millennial generation has yet to reach its full electoral strength, but the Boomers and Gen Xers have, and voted for Bush.

The mindset that 18-29 year olds in 1978 are the same as those in 1988, or 2008, is based on a fallacy that ignores the characteristics of each individual generation and only focuses on their youth.

I would like to make it clear that not everyone from the Baby Boomer and X generations has this attitude towards youth, and there are many that have done amazing things to support the youth vote, but sadly a great deal seem to share this disdain of youth.

Update: My article as originally written was not clear enough. The idea was that even on Alternet, a site that has been very good in covering the youth vote, there are those, although a very small percentage, that still hold on to negative perceptions of the youth vote.

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Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic wrote of The GOP Generational Time Bomb and created this very telling chart:

Well, despite the fact that Marc Ambinder gets it, there are still many that are blind to the youth vote and seem to find it a personal mission to ignore or discount all of the research and evidence that has been done over the last few years.

Cassy Fiano of Wizbang flat-out mocks the youth vote in a response to the Washington Post article that makes the statement that the youth vote will matter in 2008. Here is Cassy’s thoughts about the civic reawakening of the Millennial generation:

A civic reawakening? Were 20-year-olds “awake” to politics before and somehow “fell asleep”? Um… ok. And, you know, there’s the teensy problem of this poll being conducted with MTV’s help, which automatically dampens the prospect of it becoming a reality.

Look, if “young people” vote, then that’s fantastic. If they don’t, then oh well. They aren’t going to make or break elections, no matter how much the media fawns over them. Every election season its the same old song and dance, and it ain’t a different tune this time around.

It’s not just Cassy Fiano that gets it wrong. Don Surber takes on Marc Ambinder’s piece referenced above. In his commentary, with the cliche title Young People Don’t Vote, he gets it so wrong that the Darwin Awards should make an exception and “honor” a living person.

But young people are a waste of time and energy when it comes to voting. They are not where the voters are.

Voters over time tend to grow more conservative. The percentage of young voters who were Republican was at its nadir in 1952. But Republican Ike Eisenhower was elected president. See Pew Research.

In 2000, Dems held an 8-point advantage in this group and still lost the presidency (Al Gore’s plurality was measured in tenths of a point).

In 2004, Democrats increased that lead to 11 points. Bush won by 3 points.

If there are long-term effects, how did Republican Richard Nixon get elected 16 years after that 1952 nadir — and President Reagan re-elected 16 years after that — and President Bush 16 years after that? Those young Democrats became Middle Aged Independents and then Old Republicans.

Ambinder said it is a ticking bomb. Oh there’s a bomb in that post all right, but I don’t think it is on the Republicans.

The PEW Research source he uses, could that be something I missed that shows young people becoming more conservative as they get older? Oh no, it’s the research that Ambinder covered that shows young voters increasingly identifying as Democrats. Not the best supporting document I would think.

Here are the fallacies that these critics of the youth vote seem overly fond of:

1. Young people don’t vote, so it doesn’t matter if they identify as Democrats. Even if we accepted the untrue statement that young people don’t vote, they do eventually grow up, this isn’t Peter Pan. Since research in fact has shown that party identification for the most part stays consistent throughout life, it still should be troubling to conservatives.
2. The silly kids are Democrats now that they are young and don’t know any better, but they’ll grow out of it. Research says otherwise my conservative friends.
3. Not enough young people will vote to affect the 2008 election, since Gore and Kerry didn’t win with the youth vote. Have you not heard of a trend line? Surber actually shows the youth vote increasing from 2000 to 2004, he should know better. With elections as close as they are, as well as the examples of Democratic candidates in 2006 that did win because of the youth vote, I don’t know how they can ignore it.

Though as frustrated as I get sometimes reading this nonsense, there is a silver lining. As long as conservatives completely write off the youth vote as unimportant and believe that the ghost of Ronald Reagan will personally visit each young person as they get older and magically turn them into Republicans, Democrats have an unobstructed field. So conservatives, by all means, keep it up. The youth vote doesn’t matter, don’t worry about it.

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I am not going to get into any comprehensive analysis of the Harvard IOP and MTV/CBS surveys, but there are a few themes that I want to cover. For more analysis check out Future Majority.

Facebook and MySpace

Once again Facebook is the social network of choice for college students, while MySpace is more popular among non-college students. Facebook beats MySpace when it comes to political use, with 23% of respondents using the site politically to MySpace’s 11%.

Facebook increased in popularity and political use from 2006. I think this is likely a result of the changes Facebook made: opening the site to anyone, and opening the Facebook platform to third-party developers. These applications have increased the opportunities for Facebook users to engage politically. In the last week MySpace opened up its developer platform, so applications will be on the way and could increase the level of political use.

Campaign Volunteering

56% of 18-24 year olds stated that they would volunteer for the campaign they supported if they were provided the opportunity (12% Very, 44% Somewhat).

What is interesting is the difference between the Democratic candidates and John McCain. There is a 10% difference between Clinton/Obama and McCain. This indicates that young people voting Democrat are more willing to volunteer on a campaign than young people voting Republican.

Youth are Issue-Oriented and Want Issues Addressed

In the wake of the disastrous ABC/National Enquirer debate, youth are hungry for the discussion of the actual issues that “professional” journalists are not giving them.

• 65% say there is too much focus on race and gender.
• 65% say too little time is spent on jobs and opportunities for young workers.
• 47% say too little time is spent on global warming.
• 65% say too little time is spent on reducing oil and gas use.
• 59% say too little time is spent on education.
• 57% say too little time is spent on increased college costs and student loans/financial aid.
• The top issues are the economy (33%), Iraq (25%), education (9%), health care (9%), terrorism (8%), and the environment (7%).

In other words, if young people were asking the questions we would probably have a substantial debate.

Democrats More Concerned About Youth

Young people believe that the Democratic candidates are more concerned about the problems facing them than John McCain.

Young Voters Are More Convinced of Their Influence

67% of respondents felt that their generation would have as much or more influence than other generations this election, up from 53% last June.

Nader Pulls More Young People From McCain than Dems

Between Obama and McCain, there is no difference between the margin with Nader in the race, Obama winning by 21% in both situations.

Between Clinton and McCain, Clinton improves from 5% to 7% over McCain with Nader in the race.

Are there any interesting themes that you noticed in these surveys? Leave a comment.

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So after making the mistake of getting the slowest shipping possible, my copy of Michael Connery’s (of Future Majority) Youth to Power: How Today’s Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow’s Progressive Majority finally came yesterday. I read it cover-to-cover as soon as it hit my hands. I just want to say that every person that is a leader in YDA should read this book.

It is important that as leaders of progressive youth organizations we know the history of the movement, in order to learn what has worked and what has failed, as well as the knowledge of how we came to be what we are now. As I wrote in an earlier post, one of the advantages of the youth movement was its ability to innovate and learn from trial and error. Youth to Power gives a great analysis of the past successes and failures of our movement.

Specifically valuable for leaders in YDA is the chapter on Rebuilding the Democratic Youth Brand. This chapter extensively covers YDA and CDA, and many of you were part of that history.

Some of the most interesting points are on the use of the internet and mobile technology, the role of music and culture in engaging youth, and the comparison of the Conservation youth leadership pipeline to its weaker progressive counterpart.

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